Saturday, March 24, 2018

Signing the Omnibus; Playing the long game.

Yesterday was March 23rd 2018. 

For many conservatives, libertarians, or just those who are fiscally inclined, it was a day of tragedy as President of the United States Donald J. Trump signed an Omnibus spending bill.  The Omnibus; apparently so named for it's inclusion of not just multiple smaller expenditure and fiscal request bills but also bills that had little to do with the budgetary matters; was described as a Christmas Gift for Liberals and Democrats. The entirety of the Bill's passage was a near repeat of the failing Affordable Care Act, with a ludicrously short period of time between the bill's introduction and it's vote on the House and Senate floors. The bill contained boondoggles such as a tunnel favored by Chuck Schumer; as well as continued federal funding of Planned Parenthood's Eugenics program against African Americans. 

In short; the Omnibus was little more than a Democrat's wet dream of spending proposals that flew in direct opposition to everything GOP candidates ran on in 2016. It was ramrodded through Congress by the GOP Establishment Swamp working hand in hand with Democrats to betray the American Voter.

It was also...

A Trap.

Just a few days before the Omnibus was set into motion there was a fundraiser held by the National Republican Congressional Committee for the 2018 elections. President Donald J. Trump spoke at that fundraiser and explicitly told attendees what conservative's have been saying for years. The Republicans needed to move further to the right-wing on their policies; because the Democrat's were continuously moving further left. The Republican strategy of fielding "Middle Of the Road" candidates has not been, and will never be, a winning strategy. There has to be a visible ideological difference between candidates. 

Looking over history the most odd aspect of the Presidency of Donald J. Trump is the Republican Party itself. Traditionally once a President has been elected; that President becomes the Defacto Leader of that party. Throughout all of my life I've witnessed Obama, Clinton, both Bushes, and Reagan be the center of their political party.  Not so with President Donald J. Trump. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan have exhibited behavior that indicates they believe they are in charge of the Republican Party; not the President. This came to a point in a recent election when a Political Action Party attached to Paul Ryan crossed Party Lines and actively campaigned against a GOP Contender aligned with President Donald J. Trump. 

So it was without any surprise that the GOP Establishment Swamp quickly came up with a plan to get back at President Donald J. Trump for telling them to get out of the middle of the road. The plan was simple in it's implementation. The GOP Establishment Swamp would work with Democrat's to craft a budget bill stuffed with all the pork the Democrat's wanted; none of the funding that US Citizens voted for in 2016; and carrying numerous amendment riders that flew in direct violation of the ideologies already litigated upon and decided against in the 2016 elections. The Omnibus Bill would also be given an aggressively short time between introduction and voting to ensure that no members of Congress would be able to adequately examine or debate on the bill. To make the bill plausible though; it would also substantially fund the US Military. 

The GOP Establishment Swamp knew for a fact, in their own minds, that President Trump would never sign such a bill. President Trump would never sign a bill that ran contrary to everything that Candidate Trump had campaigned on. There were no conditions in which President Trump would risk the ire of his voting base. There were no circumstances in which the bill would not be vetoed. 

Thus; the trap was set.

As soon as President Trump vetoed the bill; which he would; the GOP Establishment Swamp would immediately use the Veto as Proof that President Trump was not willing to sign ANY bipartisan legislation; and thus that President Trump was LYING about making a deal on DACA or Self Defense Regulations. Furthermore; the GOP Establishment Swamp would then also be positioned to claim that President Trump was lying about supporting the Military.

Except... that didn't happen.

President Trump called the GOP Establishment Swamp's bluff.

Why Call The Bluff? National Security?

What the GOP Establishment Swamp hadn't counted on was two factors. 

The first factor was the replacement of GOP Establishment Swamp Ally McMaster with the WarHawk Ambassador John Bolton. With McMaster in place the GOP Establishment Swamp had a fairly reliable ally who would inform President Trump that the US was already in possession of the most advanced weaponry and that Military funding could wait. With Bolton; that distraction went down hard.

I realize that there are a significant number of people who have issues with Ambassador John Bolton; and I do have to admit that many of those issues are perhaps significant enough to warrant a separate discussion. That being said; I do believe that Ambassador Bolton has an accurate grasp of the reality of the National Security of the United States. I do believe that Ambassador Bolton has an accurate grasp of the reality of the National Security of the Allies and Trade Partners of the United States.

It is my opinion that Ambassador Bolton sees China as an increasingly aggressive world player that may be at the point of opening an attack against Taiwan. It is my opinion that Ambassador Bolton views North Korea as a ticking time bomb where the biggest danger isn't necessarily an attack by the North Koreans; but a distribution of North Korean resources to terrorists and dictatorships. So on down the list it goes to Russian and Iran. The Clinton and Obama pacification and appeasement has not been working. Case in point; Putin is now claiming that Russia has a hyper-sonic missile that can get past the Patriot Missile Defense Network. I don't believe Putin is crazy enough to actually throw the first punch... but traditional Russian Weapons Nation Customers such as Iran or Turkey? Yes. Oh so yes.

Just to drive this point home; we know for an established fact now that members of the Obama Administration were reaching out to leaders of nations and groups that Obama engaged in appeasement with after the 2016 election. We know for an established fact that these nations and groups were told to be patient and resist Trump. We also know for an established fact that the reason the Obama Administration members gave for resisting Trump is that those members of Obama Administration flat told the leaders of those nations and groups that Trump would be impeached within a calendar year.  

Think about that for a second. Some of the most unstable dictators and terrorists in the world have had Democrats shouting in their ears for over a calendar year to just wait until those Democrats had removed Trump from office. With the FBI's "Insurance Policy" crashing down; with the House Of Representative's Investigation finding zero collusion; with the wave of emails and texts clearly showing that the Obama Administration was the most corrupt Administration in the history of the United States... with all of that... does anybody really think that the collection of unstable dictators and terrorists appeased by the Obama Administration are just going to... sing KumBaYa... attach daisy flowers to their turbans... sit and smoke a peace pipe?  Really?  

It is with a realistic view of the threats arrayed against the United States; the allies of the United States; and the trading partners of the United States; that I believe Ambassador Bolton likely advised President Trump that funding the military couldn't wait. Research and Design programs needed to be cranked back up; facilities needed to be repaired; in-service equipment needed to be overhauled; and Soldiers needed to start being paid what they were worth for their service. 

Why Call the Buff? The Long Game?

The second factor that the GOP Establishment Swamp had not counted on is that President Trump is very good at playing a long game. The vast expanse of President Trump's real estate assets weren't built on short-tail economic practices. Winery's and Hotels are business's that have to be constructed to last decades; if not generations. 

When playing a long game it sometimes becomes required to, well, take one for the team. Vetoing the Omnibus bill would delight the vast majority of legally voting American Citizens for the moment. How would that veto play in the November elections though?

How would the GOP Establishment Swamp spin the veto? Would they, as already noted, use a veto to claim that President Trump was not actually open to bipartisan deals? Would they use the veto to indicate that President Trump was not actually willing to fund the military? 

More importantly; how would it affect the political party of the Democrats? With a vast majority of legal voting American Citizens against the Omnibus; sending the collection of bills rolled up into the Omnibus back to Congress would only give legal voters time to express their displeasure. Politicians who ride polls for each and every decision would undoubtedly abandon an attempt to force a 2/3 majority override of the veto. Various bills would be sent back to committee; and a number of the pork projects that Liberal Democrats want would likely never be able to pass a future congress. 

Who Would Those Liberal Democrat's Blame?

The obvious answer is: Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer.

Both DNC leaders are currently fighting to maintain their control and grip over the various members of the DNC. A veto of the Omnibus would have only strengthened the positions of elected Democrat's like Conor Lamb who ran on Anti-Pelosi platforms. 

While disarray in the DNC might be seen as a good thing; the reality is that Pelosi and Schumer keep pushing the DNC further and further leftward. Removing their influence could, in theory, allow the Democratic Party to actually go through a resurgence and reclaim disenchanted and disillusioned voters. Which is a bad thing to have happen. 

That's the long game that I think President Trump had in mind.

Bait. Set. Hook. Game. Wait, Who Won?

By signing the Omnibus bill President Trump stepped square into the trap set by the GOP Establishment Swamp; performing the exact action the GOP Establishment Swamp had never considered President Trump could actually commit. President Trump ticked off his supporters.

Deliberately. 

The fallout was immediate across many of the sources I keep track of. Press Releases were cancelled, emergency meetings were called, and memos circulated like wildfires. Collectively; the winners of the Omnibus bill weren't acting like winners.

DNC Agitators had lost their public relations victory by the very act of President Trump signing an ostensibly bipartisan piece of legislation. Far from being able to present a President who was unwilling to deal; DNC Agitators found themselves once again called out for their own refusal to deal on subjects the DNC Agitators had previously said they were willing to fight for. Need I remind readers of how DNC Agitators turned and ran from DACA once it suddenly became a possibility that one of the most despised over-reaches of power in the Obama Administration could actually go through a proper legislative process? 

Active members of the DNC Resistance against Pelosi and Schumer were likewise engaged in twiddling their thumbs and looking morosely at each other. The sheer amount of pork brought home by the dynamic duo once again made the Pelosi and Schumer leadership ticket untouchable in the eyes of DNC donors. Far from fragmenting the DNC and creating an environment in which Anti-Pelosi tickets could attract big-donor-backers; the DNC has once against found itself in a position where donors will once again only back candidates who have the approval of Pelosi and Schumer. 

The GOP Establishment Swamp found their names inextricably tied to one of the worst fiscal bills in the history of the United States. They had placed all their eggs in the basket with a presidential veto. Like DNC Agitators the planned propaganda had vanished with the swish of a pen. Instead of planting a target on President Trump; the GOP Establishment Swamp found themselves directly in the path of outraged voters. 

From what I observed the DNC Agitators, Anti-Pelosi contingent, and GOP Establishment Swamp were at a complete loss of what to do in the wake of the Omnibus signing.

President Trump's supporters knew exactly what to do. 

Typically in election history the party that takes the Presidential Slot looses congressional seats in the subsequent 2 year elections. There are any number of theories as to why this is so; but the dominant factor is likely voter engagement. The loosing party in an election, if they intend to run again, typically take some time to figure out who they didn't appeal to, why they didn't appeal to those voters, and what can be done to be made appealing to those voters. Ergo the loosing party does not stop engaging with voters and thus keep a running momentum.

The winning party, however, doesn't really see a need to change their approach. They won. If things don't go so well in the years between elections; then the re-election campaign is all about blaming somebody else for things going bad. If things went well, the re-election campaign is all about keeping things at the status-quo. Ergo; the winning party can stop engaging with voters and the momentum of winning is lost.  

With a dramatically successful 2017 under President Trump's belt; it's very easy to imagine the Trump Supporter base sitting back on it's laurels. The economy is moving again; the Obama Era Regulations are biting the dust; taxes have been lowered; and paychecks are going up. Across 2015 and 2016 the Trump Supporters were fighting for their very livelihoods; fighting to take back control from an openly corrupt administration. 

In 2018? Everything's fine? What's to worry or panic about?

Then President Trump tossed a hand grenade into his supporter base.

As the day wore on I tracked a number of potential candidates for congressional seats nationwide taking stances on what they would repeal from the Omnibus if they were elected to office; taking stances on approving President Trump's request for Line-Item-Veto's of passed legislation; and openly committing to helping President Trump's aim to Make America Great Again by preventing such an abuse of legislative rail-roading by getting into office and forcing Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan out of their offices. 

Within hours of the signing of the Omnibus bill; the voting base that carried President Trump into office in the face of a hostile purchased media, a rigged election, and a mandated coronation was in a full-blooded red-tilt frenzy. From what I tracked donations to #MAGA candidates soared as legal US Voters dug into their pockets to help elect representatives who would fight against the DNC and GOP Establishment Swamp.

In Total

By signing the Omnibus bill President Trump managed to pull off an exceptional series of subsequent actions. 

President Trump managed to ensure that Pelosi and Schumer retained their top positions in DNC Leadership; ensuring that DNC candidates in November would be cut from the same cloth that Legal US Voters abhor. 

President Trump managed to nail the GOP Establishment Swamp into taking specific voting positions on everything from Gun Control to Planned Parenthood that are deeply unpopular with Legal US Voters. Now the GOP Establishment Swamp will have to answer for their votes at the election poll; instead of being let off the hook by a veto.

President Trump managed to reignite the fire and passion in his base. Some might argue the fire and passion never went away; but the ripples of candidates saying "Never another Omnibus" went from shore to shore. 

President Trump managed to fund the military. After years of being turned into a giant social experiment by an openly corrupt administration there is much work to be done to once again establish the US Military as the one force other nations can turn to for help and security. 

Was all that worth another round of deficit spending; ticked off voters; and fulfilling pork projects voters already said no to?

I'm thinking... Yes.

I do think President Trump made the right decision; both in the military aspect; and the aspect of what will happen come the November elections. 

Sunday, October 09, 2016

Trump2016: The Anatomy of a Failed Attack

In just a few short hours the second of the 2016 Presidential Debates will get underway; but it isn't the debate that many were thinking it would be. Just less than 72 hours ago the Liberal Broadcast, Print, and Online media launched one of their most vicious attacks against Republican Nominee Donald Trump. After over a calendar year of muckraking and soil shifting there was finally an attack that would end the threat of Trump once and for all.  Liberals and Establishment Republicans alike were, and pardon the mental imagery, fellating themselves over the impending doom of Donald Trump.

This attack would certainly be the linchpin that would cause the Make America Great Again movement to wither and die. The attack that would send Trump himself back into one of his vast towers to never be seen again. The laser-targeted karma bomb that would ensconce an Establishment Republican square where one belonged in the Republican listing for the ballot box.  The indisputable evidence that would ensure the victory of the Secretary of the Status Quo and once again enshrine Republicans In Name Only in their comfortable couches doing nothing inside the Beltway.

The attack was simple. Nothing more than a tape of Donald Trump before a cameo appearance on a Soap Opera several years ago saying something rather vulgar and crude. Proof that Donald Trump's character was so thoroughly flawed he was unfit to serve in the Office of the President of the United States.

Within hours the sounds of cheers and popped champagne bottles from within the confines of Liberals and Establishment Republican Domiciles faded. In it's place came the sound of whimpers, glasses crashing into floors and walls, and then ever so faintly the sound of cursing and the gnashing of teeth.

In a move completely unpredicted by any Liberal Politician or Establishment Republican an end run was made around the vaunted news networks. Before even 24 hours had passed, before the sun had even set over parts of the United States, before any focus group could have been convened, before any messages could have crafted with the help of a large public relations staff, before any of the usual steps that would be taken in the face of such a dire emergency, Donald Trump acted. At 11:19pm October 7th 2016 Donald Trump had posted videos available on both his Facebook and Twitter accounts.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784609194234306560
https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/videos/10157844642270725/

By the time 3:17am rolled around on October 8th 2016 Twitter was reporting 16,191 retweets and 32,343 favorites; while Facebook had increased to 2.7 million reported views. In the middle of the night and already the videos had accumulated more unique views than CNN gets on a yearly basis; dominating the social network trending results.

The content of the videos was a simple speech with these opening lines:
Here is my statement. 
I’ve never said I’m a perfect person, nor pretended to be someone that I’m not. I’ve said and done things I regret, and the words released today on this more than a decade-old video are one of them. Anyone who knows me, know these words don’t reflect who I am.
I said it, it was wrong, and I apologize.
The day hadn't even ended on the attack and Donald Trump took ownership of the words; expressed remorse; and offered an apology. The very simple steps a Liberal Politician or Establishment Republican would never, or even could never, consider enacting. There was absolutely no effort made in the statement to defend the taped event, hide it, disguise it, or contextualize it. Donald Trump did exactly what any reasonable person would have demanded in such circumstances.

Rather than destroying Donald Trump the attack did nothing more than outrage an already angry voter base. Now a number of politicians who decided to ride the coattails of the attack might be facing their own rapidly diminished career options.

A Doomed Attack


In talking with various people on October 8th I came to an unusual conclusion. For many voters the attack itself was on an already settled issue. Senator Ted Cruz had broached the New York Values issue during the GOP Primary Debates. To many outside voters New York is the city that made no effort to initiate a recall vote on Mayor Deblasio. It was the state that somehow sent Hillary Clinton into political office where she did nothing. It was the state where the Attorney General opened up investigations for purely political reasons with no actual legal cause to support those investigations.

Investors who engage in trading on New York's Wall Street have reputations of very loose couplings between morals, ethics, and business practices. As a New York businessman himself Donald Trump has often been the very caricature of the not-that-attractive rich person who can afford a Trophy Wife. Sanctity of life, marriage, and even traditional family values are not really associated with the Wall Street Business Crowd.

Donald Trump's own potentially loose connections to the values that many under the Republican banners hold dearly was a huge part of the GOP nomination process. The voters decided though that they didn't care about Donald Trump's three marriages. They didn't care about his reputation, real or perceived, as a skirt chaser through the years.

The attack itself then; of quote/unquote "Locker Room Banter" over skirt chasing; wasn't anywhere close to pressing the limits how many voters have viewed Donald Trump over the years. Just to put this in perspective, one of my friends once outright stated that his only issue with Trump is that he wished Trump would stay within 20 years of his (Trump's) own age for a wife.

For a vast majority of the Republican base that had supported Donald Trump from the start; and those who had flocked to the banner afterwards; the attack wasn't addressing anything that had not already been addressed. It was a dead issue.

It wasn't like the attack would be particularly beneficial to dissuading Democrat Defectors either:

Open The Floodgates on Bill


The most catastrophically under planned aspect of the attack on Donald Trump is that the video was only of one incident. That incident took place in the year 2005.

Donald Trump has been a Public Figure since at least the 1970's. Never mind for a moment that the Obama Administration has been trying to discredit Donald Trump since he took issue with Obama's lack of transparency and unwillingness to simply be truthful. Just starting from the first GOP Primary Debate in 2015 it took over a calendar year for somebody, ANYBODY, from any party or campaign to dig up something with Donald Trump saying something totally screwed up... and it was from eleven years ago.

This was not a recent event such as Hillary Clinton's Basket of Deplorables or Basement Dwellers. insults. This wasn't an ongoing re-occurrence such as Bill Clinton's Energizer.

There is no line-up of women on social media filing police reports and attempting to take legal actions because Donald Trump did or said something sexual towards them. There is no overwhelming employment record suggesting Donald Trump has a personal misogynistic streak in his own companies. There is no evidence of such vulgar skirt-chasing talk being more than a contextualized one off incident; if that.

There is, however, a long string of such events with Bill Clinton. There are numerous police reports on file accusing the former president of sexually charged acts. Such charges covering abuse, assault, and even outright rape.

There has been a long litany of attempted legal actions against Bill Clinton over his sexual actions. Legal actions that been countered directly by Hillary Clinton. Victims of Bill Clinton's sexual actions charge Hillary with acts of obstruction of justice and intimidation.

There is an entire universe of difference between something Donald Trump said; and what Bill Clinton actually did. A difference that, should Donald Trump be on his Alpha Level game in the 2nd Presidential Debate; receive the quite the highlight.

The Liberal Politician and Establishment Republican desperately wanted for there to be no debate; as a result of Donald Trump withdrawing from the race; or if there was a debate for it to be entirely about what an awful human being Donald Trump was. Instead all the attack on Donald Trump has done is to give a platform to talk about Bill Clinton's misdeeds and Hillary's Complicity in burying those misdeeds.

Given that the Bill Clinton was sent into the Office of the President of the United States twice; and given that Hillary Clinton finally has her own shot at the office; circumstantial evidence would highly suggest that the average voter for the Party of the Democrats  has absolutely zero interest in sexually charged words or actions being a factor in their decision. That circumstantial evidence would then highly suggest that the average Democrat Defector crossing party lines wouldn't be affected by the taped event either.

The Stone is not for Throwing


As the debate looms ever closer and social network feeds start trending over what people expect to see or hear; other thoughts cross my mind. As I think about the attack itself I'm struck by how similar it is to events that would be found in movies from the likes of Jim Carrey, Kevin Smith, Seth Rogen, or Adam Sandler. I find myself wondering just how much of the taped event was Donald Trump being serious; or just simply telling his own version of the very offensive jokes that have defined Raunchy Comedies over the years.

I find myself wondering where the outrage and anger is at the movies and television that continually push the envelopes of decency, morality, and ethics. What made Donald Trump's event so different, or so unusual, that it could possibly justify any publication or person calling for Donald Trump to withdraw from the race?

I don't have an answer for that; because I don't think there is one beyond simple political spite. A call for withdrawal should have only been issued if Donald Trump had openly refused to apologize, ducked an apology, or performed some sort of Hillary Clinton style action to avoid taking any responsibility.  Instead of acting appropriately, the Liberal Politicians, Establishment Republicans, and those collected under the NeverTrump banner, have only gotten more bitter; and more aggressive; as the end of their political futures approaches.

Possibly the most damaged out of all of the Republican Figures who took to calling for Trump to withdraw is Carly Fiorina. Carly spent a significant amount of her own presidential campaign trying to convince potential voters that she was not the same person she was in 2005. The person who routinely shows up on lists of Worst CEOS of All Time. 

Then, in a single tweet, all of that work got thrown away. Carly might sound like me, might sound like she reads my blog, but jumping on Donald Trump without a proof of pattern or re-occurrence is a mistake her political career might not recover from. The key here is those patterns and points of re-occurrence.

Case in point would be Bill Clinton. According to Colin Powell the former president is still bedding down anything with a pulse that will drop it's panties. The issue of Bill Clinton's sexually charged actions matter because it is still very much a part of the former president's ongoing life.

Then there is the entire issue of Hillary Clinton herself. The single event captured on tape with Donald Trump resulted in no loss of life, no loss of property, and if it weren't for the leak of that tape it would have gone completely unnoticed. By contrast Hillary's behind the scenes actions have caused the direct loss of American Lives, the indirect loss of American Lives, the destruction of personal and private property of American Citizens, the open access of United States national secrets to foreign powers, open maleficence in office, obstruction of justice, interference in a federal investigation, the loss of American jobs, the collapse of American Health Care, and so on and so forth.

The patterns and re-occurrences of Hillary Clinton's constant stream of lies, propaganda, crafted messages, and covert actions paint a very vidid picture of somebody who belongs in a Federal Penitentiary. What Hillary Clinton did in private MATTERS because her actions have had very real negative and destructive effects on American Citizens.

Donald Trump might not be the ideal candidate that every Republican Desires. Donald Trump is, however, the candidate that the party voted for.

The key point now is too look at how Donald Trump handles the challenges thrown his way. Donald Trump did the right thing, the correct thing, the moral and ethical thing, by owning up to the words of his past and issuing an apology. That kind of action is the one that deserves support; not condemnation.

It was the action that requires everybody who understands just what threat Hillary poses to stand up and say: We Need To Elect Donald Trump.

Thursday, October 06, 2016

A Vote For anybody but Donald Trump is a vote for Hillary Clinton

As early voting get's underway I wanted to try and address a few subjects that have been sitting in my mind since Senator Cruz nearly ended his national career ambitions at the GOP convention. I've taken so long to address those subjects that Senator Cruz has had time to honor his pledge to endorse the GOP Nominee; as well for the number of scandals surrounding Hillary Clinton to increase. Perhaps the most relevant event to what I want to talk about concerns statements from Palmer Luckey of Facebook's Oculus division.

The short version is that an event occurred that attached Palmer Luckey to support of Donald Trump. Kotaku, in following with the political mandate set by Gawker and apparently continued under Univision owership; launched a few attacks against Mr. Luckey. Then Mr. Luckey said something that he probably shouldn't have; saying he was going to vote independent. Which comes down to voting for Hillary Clinton.

For those unfamiliar with the claims made about Mr. Luckey's intelligence, he supposedly solved critical issues with Virtual Reality displays in his back garage. ZeniMax/Bethesda has quite a different view; stating in an ongoing lawsuit that the critical issues with Virtual Reality displays were solved by IDSoftware and that John Carmack stole those technological solutions and gave them to Palmer Luckey's Oculus company. The ongoing court-case between ZeniMax/Bethesda and the current owner of Oculus, which is Facebook, is likely going to result in courtroom shenanigans making the SCO vs. IBM and Oracle vs. Google cases look polite and well mannered. That being said, Mr. Luckey's political commentary lends credence to the ZeniMax/Bethesda position that Mr. Luckey isn't the genius he's been made out to be.

The outstanding point to be addressed here is the a number of people ranging from Republicans with long standing party associations; aka the quote/unquote #NeverTrump crowd; and others such as Mr. Luckey continue to suggest that voters look at an independent candidate rather than one of the two main political party candidates. For some it's seen as voting for a protest candidate; but under the current election system for the Office of the President of the United States; Protest Candidates Do Not Exist.

More critically: under the current election system for the Office of the President of the United States; a vote for any candidate other than the Republican Nominee is always a vote for the Democratic Nominee.

Confused? Let me try and explain.

Brace For Generalized Maths


There are multiple aspects as to exactly why a vote against one candidate is a vote for a different candidate; even if the vote was cast for a third candidate. The first aspect I will address is that of the population ratio.

Typically speaking in terms of United States History in regards to national level elections; 22%~29% of the public registered to vote will always vote for the same party; with the exact percentage largely only affected buy voter enthusiasm. If the Party is fired up it is likely that the higher end 29% figure will be out in force. If the Party is depressed it is likely that the lower end 22% figure will be in play.

The obvious average data-point then is that roughly 44% to 58% of the public registered to vote is exempt from the promotional cycles.  This leaves anywhere from 42% to 56% of the population registered to vote actually being open to vote for a different candidate. Many independent candidates come across these numbers and then think they have a chance to win a national level seat; since an average rough half US citizens who are registered to vote could be available.

It's not that simple.

The Difference Between Registered to Vote; And Voting


The key point to be made here is that party ideologues with a vested interest in the winner of an election are more likely to turn out to vote than the 42% to 56% that could be swung either way on any given election. In plain terms; think of it this way:

  • 30% of the population that actually votes will always vote Democrat
  • 30% of the population that actually votes will always vote Republican
  • 60% of the population vote is already sewn up before the first ballot is cast.

This is the key point as to why an independent candidate never stands a plausible chance of a victory on a national level. Only 40% of the population that actually votes is likely to step outside party lines. Most elections require that a candidate receive over 50% of the vote in order to qualify as the winner; although many elections may only require a simple majority.

  • The Democrat Candidate only needs to convince 21% of the undecided population
  • The Republican Candidate only needs to convince 21% of the undecided population 
  • The Independent needs 35% of the undecided population for a guaranteed tie

The math here isn't that complex. If an Independent does not carry at least 35% of the undecided vote; then the opposing parties would each only need that remaining unclaimed 5% to reach a tie; 30% + 5% being 35%.  Even if the Independent got 34.99% of the vote; the 5.01% unclaimed vote would be enough to give another party the edge in a simple majority election.

This is why candidates not affiliated with major parties can win at a local, state, or even parliamentary level as in the case with the Pirate Party. Independently aligned candidates fare better where local issues are the defining aspect of a race. Against larger party competition; the problem quickly scales out of a reasonable perspective. Compared to the major party candidates; the independently aligned candidate has to openly appeal to nearly twice as many voters who will actually vote.

While candidates have successfully run on single-issue platforms for various offices; higher-level national offices typically require more than just single-issue candidates. The candidates have to address a wide spectrum of issues; which in turn decreases the viability of a single-issue candidate.

This is an aspect of the problem the GOP has run into in past elections. As the election race for the office of the President of the United States draws towards it's ballot box date the GOP candidates have typically raced for a middle-road political position; leaving no real differences in policies or platforms compared to the competition.

Independents trying to court votes on a wider scale typically run into the problem that for the most part; they don't actually have that many policies or platforms that are radically different; if different at all; from a candidate in a major party. Appealing to nearly twice the number of voters that a major party candidate has to appeal to means having to make greater compromises on positions and ideologies. This means that not only does a candidate have to work to gain more votes than a major party competitor; a candidate also has to do that work while trying to be different enough from either major party competitor to stand out; while also adopting enough of each parties major platform points in order to attract the voters who would lean closer towards chosing a major political party candidate.

Bringing Trump Back In


The problem of numerical statistics is even greater for Donald Trump. Donald Trump is probably the first candidate in a long time nominated to the candidacy position where various party members with timeline seniority have no intention of supporting the party candidate.

Roughly speaking; 10% of the active and enthused Republican Base might not vote for Donald Trump. For reference that figure is largely obtained through the analysis of voter activity over the course of the 2016 Presidential Primaries as NeverTrumpers slowly shifted percentage ratios to candidates that were not Donald Trump. The actual number is probably far smaller; but the point of keeping the math simple; the generalized maths probably go something like this:

  • 30% of the voting population will vote Hillary Clinton no matter what happens.
  • 20% of the voting population will vote Donald Trump no matter what happens.
  • 10% of the voting population will NOT vote Donald trump regardless of what happens
  • 40% of the voting population could still be swayed one direction or another.

Since most State races require a simple 50% majority; Donald Trump has the unfortunate position of having to attract at least 31% of the unclaimed 40% in order to win a general election; while Hillary Clinton only has to attract 21% of that unclaimed 40% to carry victory.

That's a pretty tall order.  It's made more complex by:

That Electoral College


On paper and in conception the Electoral College was a brilliant stroke of government design. The Founding Fathers of the United States had come from a country where the city born Barons, Dukes, Kings, Queens, and other associated members of royalty dictated life outside their walls; without a clue as to what people outside those walls actually did. The disconnect between city life and those who tilled the land itself is a largely under-accredited aspect of the events highlighted at the Boston Tea Party. For those who studied history in a US School through the 1990s or into the 2000's, the Boston Tea Party was not actually a social event where US and British Sailors got into a slap fight.

It was a protest against the British royalty raising taxes without any representation from those on whom the taxes where levied. In other words; the British Royalty decreed that the colonists would simply hand over more money; even though they didn't do a single thing to make that money. If that sounds familiar to the DNC's line of "RAISE TAXES!"  ... congrats. You are officially smarter than Hillary Clinton.

The initial construction of the US Voting System thus tied voting rights to Men who actually owned real estate. This insured that whoever voted; and in turn whoever actually participated in politics; had a very real stake in the effects of their decisions.

However; the Founding Fathers likely did  envision a day when maybe the framework wouldn't be so tightly tied to whoever actually owned land. The Electoral College then is a solution to decoupling the direct stake each voter has in each election; an in turn leveraging other factors; such as economic conditions or local culture; have a greater factor in a chosen candidate.

At it's core; the Electoral College is supposed to function under the same tenants as Congress itself. The basic flow chart kind of looks like this:




In local elections the voter directly casts their vote for a candidate. In larger elections; such as the election for the Office of the President of the United States; the vote is used to determine the Elector of the candidate. The Elector then represents the interests of those who voted and casts their Electoral Vote on the basis of what the constituents voted for.  This follows the same rough model of Congress is helping to shape a majority represented opinion on legislation.

This was an ideal solution to the growing nature of the United States when the primary method of travel involved a horse. It made much more sense for a single rider to carry the representation of their city, county, or state in the form of a cast vote. Such a system would also scale with size; the electoral process itself helping to distill a wide range of potential candidates for a single political position.

However; the system has never really been readjusted for modern times. The election process for the office of the President Of the United States still awards the totality of the electoral college vote on the basis of whoever carries the total population of a state. In states like California the vast majority by land might vote Republican; but since Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, and Oakland are hotbeds of liberal democrat ideology; just roughly 4 cities dictate the economic and social consequences for the rest of the state.

This distillation of the population vote into a representative vote is the very process that completely eliminates protest votes or non major party candidates 

Of course; the Democrats don't want the system to be updated. Even a cursory glance at voting percentages by land over the 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012 elections show that a Democrat would likely never again be able to hold a national level office if the Electoral College was shifted to use a district system that more closely followed the intent of the Electoral College. Right now it's just politically expedient to award the entire electoral college of a state to whoever carries the population vote; regardless of the real economic and social repercussions.

What this means for Your Own Personal Vote

or: Why You Should Vote for Donald Trump


Under the current system of election for the Office of the President of the United States the only purpose a vote for a third party candidate is to deny either Major Party Candidate a population vote. Or in simpler terms: It Means That A Voter Did Not Want Their Vote To Count

I understand a lot of the fear, uncertainty, and even doubt that surrounds Donald Trump. I've dealt with such F.U.D. from Microsoft for literal decades now. Politically speaking Donald Trump is not my ideal candidate; but he has been making almost all of the correct maneuvers. Donald Trump has been seeking out the advice of all the people I would go to to seek out advice. I might not like all of his policies; but I can envision and understand them.

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is most certainly the candidate nobody wants. The Democratic National Party turned her down for a shot at the Presidential Nomination in 2004 when it was decided she didn't have enough support to run at all; in 2008 when she did run against the no-name Barack Obama; and again in 2012 when she ran against one of the worst sitting Presidents in the history of the United States.

As of this posting Hillary Clinton has become the poster child for Open Corruption. Her husband openly meets with the Director of the Department of Justice for the United States during a criminal investigation. The Federal Bureau of Investigation for the United States destroys evidence under subpoena from both Congress and a Federal Judge; while granting limited immunity to prosecution outside the legal constraints of a Sitting Grand Jury. The FBI Director also openly admits that a criminal investigation failed to address evidence uncovered by Congress or uncovered in other ongoing Federal cases. The same FBI Director that also confirmed Hillary's confessions of various crimes then declining to recommend prosecution in the same breath.

The Obama Administration is no longer bothering to hide it's open stonewalling of Congressional Investigations or ongoing Federal Level Lawsuits. Involved parties are being told that evidence under subpoena will not be made available. The FBI refused to provide Congress with unredacted reports; forcing a dramatic showdown on Broadcast Television.

On top of all of the legal scandals, Hillary Clinton openly insults anybody who holds opposing viewpoints. Need I say more than Basket of Deplorables.

Despite all of the legal issues; trust issues; health issues; and absolute lack of interest; a significant number of Print and Broadcast Media Organizations would have voters believe that Hillary Clinton still holds an electoral edge. To just try and put this in perspective:

In the wake of the first Presidential Debate of 2016 the vast majority of responses in the 48 hours after the debate showed Donald Trump as the winner with a 2:1 ratio.  In other words; out of about every 100 people that would vote in a trackable poll over who won the debate; Donald Trump had 66% to 67% of the vote versus Hillary Clinton's 33% to 34%.

Yet; polls trying to determine who would win the election if the election were held ahead of time showed Hillary Clinton gaining a bump in her poll numbers while Donald Trump's numbers dipped.

Pardon my Russian for a moment: Какого черта!, Черт возьми!, Ради бога! Это не логично. 

This would mark the first time in modern polling history where a candidate won a Presidential Debate and had their numbers drop; while the loser had their numbers bump. It defies belief and comprehension.

What Hillary Has:


The only thing Hillary has left is an infrastructure. There are a massive number of fiscally vested parties involved with Hillary's campaign; ranging from bought-off labor unions to openly corrupt local, if not state, governments. The vast voting base that always votes for the Democratic Candidate is not going to go away. There are a large of number of US Citizens who are under a perceived, if not possibly realistic, pressure to vote for Hillary or lose their livelihood.

The Democratic National Party might not be enthused about voting for Hillary; but they'll show up at the polls. The DNC will also cheat; committing every single little bit of voter fraud the DNC and it's affiliates can get away with.

Proving Voter Fraud though is notoriously difficult. In states that are bastions for members of the DNC it can be nigh-on impossible to do something as simple and sane as ask for a Drivers License or other proof of identification before voting. Record numbers of illegal aliens will also find their way into the voting polls due to the efforts of DNC members.

It's this infrastructure of illegal votes, coerced votes, and legal votes that still give Hillary Clinton the potential capability to carry the 2016 election. It doesn't matter how nasty her campaign is; how many crimes she is known to have committed;  or anything else.

The Solution:


 The solution is a simple one. Do not throw a vote away. Do not cast a meaningless symbol that is discarded by the in-place system. There are better, and more accurate, methods of national elections that can follow the framework the Founding Fathers of the United States laid out. The system can be fixed; but it requires taking steps to get to a point where the system can be fixed.

A vote for a third party candidate is not a solution. It just simply means one less vote towards a solution. If Mr. Palmer Luckey were really the genius he's been made out to be; he'd have an innate understanding of the electoral system and would have never suggested voting for a third party candidate.

Right now that step towards solving the breaks in the Election System; the step towards ending the Open Corruption of the Obama Administration and Hillary Clinton is this: Vote For Donald Trump.

That's it. It's just that simple.

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

SuperTuesday: A Choice To Make.

In Route To Super Tuesday


Originally this post started life during the writing of why I had centered on choosing Ted Cruz as the US Presidential Candidate to support. In between that post and today the group of viable candidates has decreased substantially. In turn more and more of this post turned into a postmortem than a comprehensive look at what each candidate did, or did not bring to the table. 

In the intervening time Eric S. Raymond linked an interesting, if vitriolic, opinion post with rather vivid mental imagery reflecting upon the anger casual voters might display towards the state of the mind of the quote/unquote "Establishment" within the Republican Party. I saw other sites; both political and non-political; start running stories that Voter Anger in general was a real problem not just for the GOP to deal with, but for the DNC as well. Polling numbers from the states that have completed either their caucus stage or their primary votes have shown a dramatic rise in per-population percentage ratios under the Republican Party compared to elections across 2014, 2012, 2010, 2008, 2006, 2004, and so on; almost reaching back to the 1980's and the election of Ronald Reagan. In turn; the per-population ratios for the DNC have likewise fallen to, if I'm not mistaken, possibly record breaking lows. 

In turn this post morphed yet again; starting to focus in on the GOP's game plan to deal with an outraged voting base. In respect to changing focus; elements were added covering the possibility that quite a few of those who would normally vote in a DNC Primary making the jump towards voting in a GOP primary. Which eventually lead to a completely incoherent mess. 

As SuperTuesday polling hours draw ever closer; I turned back to the keyboard to try and wrangle together some of the points I wanted to make.  I'm not sure that in the limited time between when this post will go live and the opening of the polling precincts that there will be time enough for there to be any kind of impact. 

With that in mind; I do want to say this.  If you are an American Citizen who can vote on 3/1/2016: Your Best Vote is for Senator Ted Cruz. 

So; onward; which right now means turning back the pages of time:

The Presidential Campaigns Begin


In several ways I found myself perplexed by the width and breadth of the GOP's Presidential Candidates across the end of 2015. Even the worst candidates showing up at the initial undercard debates were still State level Governors with success stories for their time in office.  For the first time in decades there were still at least 12 viable candidates under a calendar year out from the election date. For the first time in perhaps centuries there were viable candidates to be found among those who entered the party race from outside of the usual political spectrum.

Yet, as 2016 rolled into play and the earliest precincts opened; 2014 repeated itself. The Republican Base had shifted. The average polled electoral voter wasn't interested in the family relative of two previous presidents; nor in the credentials that came with being a state Governor. Rather, the Republican Base, poll after poll, debate after debate, kept focusing on the Political Outsider's... or Politicians whose calling cards were printed with: T.E.A. Party.

The Outsiders

Early on I found myself quite attracted to the Political Outsider Carly Fiorina; who as of this posting has suspended her campaign. I commented in a number of places that my memories of Carly Fiorina centered around her time at HP, her routine positioning in lists covering Worst CEO's of All Time, and her observed obsession with Microsoft Ideology.  I still have very vivid memories of the turning point; when she went from somebody I could not care about to somebody I wanted to see take the nomination. I was driving in my car listening to an interview she was giving, and being able to complete her sentences word for word. Not because I was smart enough to know what she was going to say... but because she was quoting... Me.

At the same time I was trying to wrap my head around the concept that Carly Fiorina had either been reading my blogs or came to the same intellectual conclusions I had come to over the years; another outsider perhaps pushed her out of the potential limelight. Dr. Ben Carson was perhaps the best outsider choice; being both perhaps the most intelligent person in the field and one who had accomplished some of the most difficult management tasks ever imaginable. In one of the later debates Dr. Carson brought up that he was not a stranger to making literal life-and-death calls at 2am; and nor was he unpracticed at putting together the best possible teams to take on staggeringly complicated tasks. Were the Presidential Election determined by sheer intellect as embodied in long-form research papers and detailed plans, Dr. Carson would surely be an easy choice.

As of this posting there was an excellent editorial posted online from the good Doctor explaining why his campaign was still running as SuperTuesday closed in. Up until SuperTuesday more than 95% of the delegates to determine the GOP's nominee were still in play; the sub-5% already determined at best a highly inaccurate picture of the voting trends to come. The editorial was a first class example of exactly why Dr. Carson would have made a great President; but for me it is too little too late.  If Dr. Carson had been writing such editorials after each debate; or even each week; or even going on-line through Youtube for a Modern take on the Fireside Chat public relations technique; then he might still be a contender that I would consider casting a vote for.

Speaking of those debates; some unveiled perhaps a different side of Dr. Carson. In one of the late 2015 debates Dr. Carson shot back a complaint at a moderator because it took too long to ask Dr. Carson a question. While I feel sure that Dr. Carson was trying to make a point about the moderators at a previous debate; who were more interested in trying to craft a free-for-all among the candidates; the complaint came across as petty. Not exactly the image a Presidential Candidate really should be portraying; or repeating. Which Dr. Carson proceeded to perform at the very next debate; then the next debate; then the next; and so on. With other qualified candidates to chose from who all played to their strengths; there seemed to be little point to dwelling on Dr. Carson.

Then there was the outsider taking the top spots in all the polls: Donald Trump. A business man with absolutely no filter on his mouth. After years of double-talk and political tongue wagging who did not want a candidate that just said the first thing that popped into their mouth?  Who didn't want a candidate that had enough money in the bank to fund their own campaign so there'd be absolutely zero question of kowtowing to special interests?

Yet, Trump was never the candidate for me. When Senator Ted Cruz took to a debate stage and talked about New York Values the meaning was clear. New York was the state where Hillary Clinton managed to find work in an elected office. New York was the state where an anti-police Mayor was elected into office. New York was a state where there was absolutely zero effort to recall that incompetent mayor. While Donald Trump might have been insulted by Senator Cruz's New York Values comments; Donald Trump was not insulted enough to fly back home, start the proceedings to get the mayor recalled from office, and get the State Attorney General to put Hillary Clinton in a maximum security holding cell.

I'll come back to Mr. Trump for the conclusion; but I think the stage is set now to move onto the political candidates:


Shakedown

So let's get to the point where I write about why I found myself choosing the politician Senator Ted Cruz by talking about why I would not want to support other political candidates. I'll start with Governor Chris Christie whom I have claimed is quite Republican In Name Only. Governor Christie has expressed personal views on subjects like abortion that I would find untenable to be held by somebody with a conservative disposition. During one of the debates Governor Christie was called on some of his personal actions; and to the best of discernible available evidence... lied his butt off.

Which, honestly, I don't think the Governor had to do. I think it would have made a much stronger case for his candidacy if Governor Christie had looked straight at the moderator and said something to the effect of: "You know what? I did give some money to Planned Parenthood back '94. You want to know something else? The organization I was familiar with back then, that I wanted to support back then, isn't the organization we know now. They weren't responsible for all of the tragedies we found out about in the late 90's and early 2000's. They weren't the very example of a corrupt business that the Federal Government should be spending Zero Dollars on. I'd like to think that I've grown up over the years; that I'm a better person than I was back then. I'd like to think I can learn from the mistakes of my past; and ensure that those mistakes are never repeated.

Boom. Done. Governor Christie had the perfect opportunity to make a case for being a Conservative Republican coming out of New Jersey... and he blew it. By now his campaign is suspended and he has voiced support for Donald Trump.  The RINO bit turned into quite a bite.

Given the timing of this particular posting I won't delve into either Gov. Jeb Bush or Gov. John Kasich. As already referenced above; the voting populace simply has not been interested in either candidate; Gov. Jeb Bush having the good graces to suspend his campaign. Gov. Kasich has not realized it is long past time to bow out of the race.

Which leaves Senator Marco Rubio and Senator Ted Cruz as the other two politicians.

Breakup

Early on in the race I was personally torn between Senator Rubio and Senator Cruz.  I liked the personal stories of both candidates. I liked many of the positions. I liked many of their policies. While Senator Cruz appeared to have the best on-paper policies; Sen. Rubio had a longer history of working across the aisle.

Then; as referenced in the I Choose Cruz post; Senator Rubio just threw his viability into a trash can in the span of a single debate. As I sat re-watching the clips where Senator Rubio pulls out the shotgun and takes out one foot with a highly inaccurate and under-educated blurb on encryption; then promptly shoot the other foot with highly inaccurate takes on National Security and transparency; and then reload both barrels to subsequently blast the seat of his pants with a highly inaccurate take on Snowden; I was hit with an Epiphany.

The Average American Voter Does Not Care About Working Across The Aisle.

The DNC, and in turn much of the quote/unquote Mainstream Media, have been playing up the importance of President working with an opposite party. The favorite example to date has been the amount of work between President Ronald Reagan and Congressional Representative Tip O'Neill.

However; a quick check of the history books seems to reveal an interesting fact. While Rep. O'Neill was a Democrat; he was neither a Socialist or a Communist. Rather; all things considered; his reputation was far more middle of the road. President Reagan did not have to deal with a Congress that was controlled by an almost hostile radical political faction.

The modern day DNC barely resembles the DNC of the late 1970's and early 80's. A DNC that was marked by candidates like Jimmy Carter and an opposition to the Socialist Policies that had wrecked nations around the world. The DNC might have been a little kooky; heavy on the idea of citizen entitlements; but they were a far cry from the policies of the Obama Administration or candidates such as Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.

With that epiphany in mind I realized I knew why Donald Trump was so popular; and why DNC reported voting percentages were dropping like comparative stones.

Takeout

In short; Donald Trump was a Democrat. He grew up in an environment heavily controlled by then DNC social ideals; but also while gaining real-world experience in business. 

The DNC of today does not want people who hold Conservative Fiscal Policies; they want those who espouse Socialistic Social Policies. There is no room for anybody in today's DNC who believes that the Freedoms of Religion apply to Christians; or for anybody who believes that All Lives Matter; or for anyone who questions what business practices the Planned Parenthood organization actually participates in. 

Record numbers of former loyal DNC party members are tired of watching their party drift further and further from the "Glory" days of Rep. O'Neill's time in office. One of the most notable was a Kentucky Clerk who was abandoned by her political party when she attempted to exercise her Religious Beliefs, only to find support among those in the GOP. 

Donald Trump could probably seal his place in office by just getting up on a stage and saying something to the effect of: You know what? I used to be a Democrat. I gave money to Democrat Politicians. I supported with my money what they told me to support. You know what? I found out they didn't want me anymore. They looked at my job creation, my success, and they said they didn't want me. They looked at my family; at my business; at me; and said they didn't want me. They looked at what I had to offer; and said they didn't want that. So I'm here. I found open arms in this Republican Party. I found people ready to listen to what I have to say; people who said "We Want You Donald Trump."  So yeah, there's a lot in this Republican Party I'm not used to. There's a lot I haven't seen comin from New York.  But you, you've shown me. As I've gone across this great land; talking to each and everyone of you; I've learned something. I've learned what you think is important. I've heard about your opposition to Planned Parenthood; I've heard you talk about my past; I've heard you talk about how I spent my money. Fine, I'm flexible on a lot of things; I'm a businessman who likes to negotiate; and that's the key here. Negotiation. There's room for us to talk. It's a give and take. I can tell you this much though; elect me and I'll do my best to represent each and every one of you. Everything you believe in, I want to be important to me; because that's how we get the best Deal. That's how we Win. 

If Donald Trump were to embrace his position as somebody who is from the DNC of yesteryear; somebody outcast from the political party they would have called home; and somebody who found a home in the GOP, then he could probably ignite and combine those in the DNC suffering from Voter Apathy and those suffering from Voter Anger into an unstoppable force. 

Only; Mr. Trump has seen fit to make a run for the far right; claiming conservative credentials he probably doesn't actually have. He has been accused of being a Confidence Artist; which in some ways is one of the largest No Duh! moments I have seen in recent memory. Mr. Trump is a businessman from New York with several billions in his bank account. That there could be possible connections to a Mafia of some kind or evidence of links to various Cons pulled over the years; would not be a big surprise. The link between successful New York Businessmen, Mafia types, and legally grey business practices is as stereotypical as a Corrupt Chicago Politician. 

However, I'm not entirely convinced that quasi-legal dealings in Mr. Trump's past; or potential Mafia connections; are a reason to entirely dismiss him as a Presidential Candidate. Mr. Trump has a reputation for the practice of looking after himself.  I harbor no doubt that were Mr. Trump to be elected to the Office of the Presidential of the United States his desire to win; his desire to be the best at whatever he can be; would actually make for good qualities. Sure; it might bring back the days of Crony Capitalism; but Crony Capitalism is easier to fix than Socialistic Corruption. 

In short; Donald Trump is probably somebody who would carry through on his campaign promises. He's a businessman first; and if American wins on Energy Production, transportation, resource production, immigration reform and ejection of illegal aliens; then Mr. Trump's properties win. 

Yet; as I expressed before; my reason for not voting for Donald Trump stems not from his policies or beliefs; but because American Citizens have a much better candidate in the Republican Field. That candidate is not Senator Marco Rubio. 

Shattered

As 2016 has closed off it's first 2 months I find my decision to step away from Marco Rubio easier and easier with each passing day. His announced policies are simply not as effective as anything Donald Trump or Senator Cruz have presented. His claim to be able to work across the aisle is meaningless when the aisle is dominated by an ideological gap rather than bridged with shared ideals. His promise to beat Hillary is hollow after his massive flubs on National Security, Encryption, and Snowden. 

The only reason Marco Rubio still seems to be a viable candidate is a massive mistake on the part of the GOP Establishment. It is a near textbook example of "Those who do not Learn from History are Going To Repeat It"

Across 2008 and 2012 the GOP Establishment tried to move middle-of-the-road candidates through the political process. The attempts failed; with Senator McCain's stellar imitation of a planted vegetable certainly not helping his case; and Mitt Romney coming off of 2 previous losses in the primaries and a concerted effort to make the race a third time charm. 

The fact is this: as candidates get closer and closer to the actual election; most candidates take a turn for middle-of-the-road rhetoric. The result is Presidential Elections with candidates who only have minor differences in their policies; rather than deep ideological differences that the country must vote on. 

The tactic has twice now failed for the GOP Party. A middle of the road Republican Candidate simply cannot; under most normal conditions; win against a middle of the road Democratic Candidate; simply because the DNC typically offers status quo. Both Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were highly competitive with their middle of the road presentations; even if their actions in office barely resembled those of the campaign trails. 

So in 2016 one would assume that the GOP Establishment; which is best defined as the senior party members who are hung up on time-in-party as an ultimate deciding factor; would realize they had to change strategies. They needed something other than a middle of the road candidate; somebody whose every action screamed consistent ideology; somebody with a reputation for holding to a line.

Except that didn't happen.

The GOP Establishment tried to run the exact same playbook that cost the last too elections; with large amounts of resources to longstanding party members and not so much for party outsiders or those who rocked the Senatorial vote. The result was a disaster as both Gov. Jeb Bush and Gov. John Kasich helmed campaigns that seemed to have more in common with the Titanic than with the HMS Conqueror

So; as the Gov. Bush and Gov. Kasich campaigns ran aground like the HSM Vanguard; the big money backers and Establishment types turned to Sen. Marco Rubio.  The very same Senator they had dismissed for not waiting for his turn to be President; and somebody who had shot his rump off on national television. 

Senator Rubio, at some point, realized that his campaign needed some tweaks; so like Donald Trump Senator Rubio took off quickly towards the right-wing of his party. Since then my email in-box has been flooded with reasons why Senator Rubio is more conservative than Senator Ted Cruz on one topic or another.

The result?  Senator Rubio comes across as a flip-flopper of a higher order magnitude; just based on the emails from the promotional campaigns. I suspect that if Senator Rubio's campaign hadn't been given buoyancy from the Establishment types; it would have already ran into the ground.

Quite simply; of the remaining GOP Candidates; Senator Rubio is easily the worst candidate possible who is still viable. 

I found myself staring open-mouthed with the GOP Chairman, Reince Priebus, claimed something to the effect that it wasn't his position to tilt the scales of the nomination cycle. BULL.

It IS with Chairman Priebus's purview as the Chairman of the GOP to let party members know when their actions put long term party gains at risk.  Attempting to back another middle of the road candidate; attempting the same playbook that failed the last two Presidential elections; DEMANDS action from the Chairman's Office. It demands that Chairman Priebus flat out tell Party members they have one option: Get a New Strategy

Strategy

The new strategy is simple: Back Senator Ted Cruz with everything the Party has to offer. 

There are a number among the GOP who simply don't want Donald Trump to take the nomination. Fine. That is their prerogative. Running the old playbook isn't the way to get that result. Running the old strategy will not obtain that result. 

If Donald Trump can take the nomination in a one-on-one fight against somebody who is tested; principled; almost annoyingly consistent in his Conservative Values; then fine. Donald Trump will have earned that victory. 

That candidate that all those who want to DumpTrump need to support; is Senator Ted Cruz. 

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

I (Would) Choose Cruz.

The 2014 Preamble

In 2014 US voters spoke en masse. An unprecedented wave of election results sent not just record numbers of freshmen representatives into both Houses of Congress; but also into the houses of Governors across the Union. On November 5th I wrote about that Absolute Mandate, the Power of those flying under the banner of Taxed Enough Already, and the utter revulsion of the Obama Agenda on G+:  https://plus.google.com/+JeSaist/posts/a9BFnxZ9MrR

What voters got across 2015 was not the implementation of their Mandate. What voters received instead was a sitting President that abjured from any pretense of following a rule of law. Instead of working within the confines of the Presidential Duties to draft legislation for a vote before Congress; the sitting President turned to policy edits and departmental orders to carry out his agenda. The abuse of so called Executive Orders were, to rephrase various contextual comments, carried out under the Chief Executive's belief that he was working to represent all of the US Citizens who did not vote.

Which... there is no polite way to say this... is simply ludicrous. The United States is ostensibly a Republic; a style of government where citizens elect an individual who best represents the interests of those individuals. A salient point of the voting system is that elected representatives are bound to represent the interests of those who vote; not those who did not take the time and effort to vote.

While the average US citizen watched the sitting President descend into observable childish lunacy; if not abject delusional behavior; attention then turned to the Congress which is charged with oversight of all of the actions that can be taken by a sitting President. Freshmen to the House of Representatives and Senate found themselves opposed not by the other political party; but by their own senior leadership. Senior Leadership that quickly found itself being referred to as The Establishment. An unattractive title if there ever was one.

Clashes between "The Establishment" and those attempting to carry out the 2014 Election Mandate eventually came to some kind of internal conclusion. In a rare occurrence one of the Senior "Establishment" members holding the special position Speaker of the House stepped down. Those attempting to carry out the 2014 Election Mandate had won an important internal battle.

Throughout all those events one name continued to rise to the forefront and feature on the front pages of websites owned or controlled by Liberal Democrat Interests. One name was almost continually in circulation on every single site controlled by AOL Media's Arianna Huffington. One person who was bound and determined to carry out the expressed will of the People to stop the Obama Agenda and get the United States back on Track. One name that, despite not even being in the House of Representatives, was name-checked as a deciding factor that lead to the Speaker of the House turnover. One name that was attached to every single bill that needed to be defeated; one name that was attached to every single bill that was abandoned. One name who was making a difference that the Liberal Democrats and quote/unquote Establishment Republicans could not stand. One Singular Enemy who stood between the gates of the Obama Delusion and Sane Rational Behavior. One Enemy the quote/unquote "Liberal Left" was desperate to extinguish. The very embodiment of a real world Senator Bail Prestor Organa:

Senator Ted Cruz.

In some ways I'm not entirely sure that the preceding is hyperbole. I honestly saw more hit pieces on Senator Ted Cruz filter through Huffington controlled sites than any other political representative. In my book; anybody who can get on Huffington's nerves often enough that there is an observed editorial mandate to attack that person even on web sites that supposedly have zero political connection is probably somebody I want to spend a few hours playing Borderlands or UT'99 with.

It would be fair then to say that I was already tilting in the direction of Senator Ted Cruz even before the first debates and the now legendary Cruz Missile swept through social media like a firestorm across a petrol laced corn field mid-drought. What locked him in though? What made him somebody that I... after spending an in-ordinate amount of time specifically advocating ideals and not names... would openly state: You Need To Vote For This Candidate.


The Taxes


I'll go into why the other candidates sunk themselves for me in a different post; as for many there were very clear moments where they became somebody I would have difficulty voicing my support for. For Senator Cruz though; there wasn't really a singular moment where he said something, or did something, that turned him into somebody that I would openly support. 

It was rather a culmination of factors. The easiest place to start with is taxes; especially as I am somebody who self identifies as a member of the T.E.A. Party. Senator Cruz's Tax Plan is freely available to view online on his own website. In essence the Tax Plan centers around dismissing the IRS and implementing a Flat Tax.

Now, I could waste reader's time talking about the benefits of a Flat Tax plan. I shouldn't have to do that as the information on why a Flat Tax plan is sane and reasonable should be self evident. For those who really do need that kind of information spoon fed to them are probably better off just following the link to Senator Cruz's website.  

Instead I'd rather take the time and draw the link between the Tax System and political lobbying as I have done before on this blog; incidentally much to the dismay of a great number of political activists.  The extensive loopholes, credits, bonus's, and collective write-offs in the currently implemented and IRS Enforced Tax Plan functions as a root cause driving one prong of the push on Homosexual Marriage. To put simply: The Homosexual Lobby generally wants equivalent fiscal benefits to Heterosexual Couples despite not being able to fulfill the one obligation that those fiscal benefits are supposed to encourage: Produce the Next Generation.  

A Flat Tax plan that impacts everybody equally makes it easier to directly deal with issues like housing, utility infrastructure, food resources, and other aspects of simply living outside the manufactured walls of how much credit any one particular house or apartment gets based on who is inside and what their sexual relations are. Ergo a flat-tax plan effectively ruins much of the Homosexual Lobby's mentality; removing the fiscal payoff(s) for having reached equivalent legal status for couples living together. 

The Marriage Position

Removing the fiscal pillar that props the Homosexual Lobby up in turn makes it easier to reveal the second and more insidious prong of the Homosexual Lobby attack: Forcing the government to tell "The Church" what "The Church" can and cannot do

This segues into Senator Cruz's positions on Marriage and Family Life. I, for one, really don't care what people do for sexual entertainment in the confines of their own apartments. 

I do care when people's sexual entertainment and practices result in attempts to re-define various words. The entire concept of Marriage in relation to the US Government is one that is rooted within the Judeo-Christian concepts that the country was founded on. To repeat myself: The Entire Point of the US Government Recognizing a Marriage is that the Union of a Man and a Women Brings About The Next Generation Of Citizen

There just is no way around that simple fact. Senator Ted Cruz, to date, stands on that sane and rational understanding of just what the purpose of the Government's recognition of Marriage means. That in turn segues into the next point:

Citizenship

Recognizing that a Marriage brings about the next generation delves straight into Citizenship. I want to tangent for a bit here and write about Senator Ted Cruz's eligibility for the Office of US President. The challenge has been raised that while Senator Ted Cruz was born of an American Citizen Mother, his Father was not an American Citizen, and Senator Cruz was born off of US Soil in Canada. The US Constitution makes some specific statements on the eligibility of Presidential Candidates; and there are some arguments that suggest that because Senator Cruz's father was not an American, and because Senator Cruz wasn't born on National Soil or under a Protectorate, that the Senator is not eligible for the Office of US President.

 Bull.

Couple of numbers here. Props to those who grok the meaning without using Google: 
  • 1839
  • 19
  • 1919
  • 1920


If you guessed or realized: 
  • Married Women's Property Act
  • 19th Amendment
  • 19th Amendment Introduced
  • 19th Amendment Ratified


Congrats. You might already have figured out where this is going. When the US Constitution was written Women could generally not hold property; nor could they vote. As such the legislation was written with under the vernacular and context of the time.  Over the years, as a country, the US came to the conclusion that Women did have rights, they could vote, and were equal citizens to Men. These legal victories are the lens upon which the Constitution's Limitations on Eligibility of Citizens for the Office Of President must be viewed. 

Under that lens, as a son to an American Citizen, Senator Ted Cruz is eligible for the Office of the President of the United States. Period. Stop. There is no other argument. 

Which circles back around to the points from earlier. The entire point of the US Government recognizing a Marriage is that a Marriage is one of the legal frameworks for recognizing a citizen of the country. Okay, fair argument that an ever growing number of US Citizens are produced out of wed-lock; but the point still stands. The recognition of a Marriage is part of the legal process in recognizing a chain of citizenship.

Immigration and Borders

Immigration, or rather the blanket-amnesty pushed by the Obama Administration, is another aspect of future citizenship. Senator Cruz is saying all the correct things; and his congressional record covers all of the desirable objectives. Chief among those objectives is simply enforcing the laws that are in place.

Yes. That does mean there will be a significant number of deportations. It's going to hurt. It is going to rip families apart. 

One of the self-evident problems is the sheer scale of illegal immigration within the US. A scale of millions that was only achieved largely due to efforts of those identifying under Liberal Left ideals working in border states to prevent laws from enforced. So called Sanctuary Cities are a symptom of the Liberal Left's contempt for what everybody else voted on; and for what was passed into the books of Law.  

Senator Cruz has outlined a fairly comprehensive plan on how he will address Immigration and Borders. I can't lie; it is going to hurt. Cleaning up messes other people caused is rarely pretty.

In reference to the security wall to be built on the southern border. I have my own crazy plan to make the wall along the US's Southern Border a canal large enough to get two super-tankers side by side from the Gulf of Mexico to the Pacific Ocean; and I'd love it if Senator Cruz gave that moonshot a chance. 

The Tipping Point(s)

By now it should be pretty obvious. Senator Ted Cruz supports many, if not all, of the same ideals I have talked about here on this blogger, on G+, and on other various sites. Which comes back to the original question. When did everything Senator Cruz said and did culminate in me dusting this particular site back off to run a self-published post? 

Honestly. It was not Senator Cruz himself that tipped the plates.

It was Senator Marco Rubio. 

During one of the debates Senator Ted Cruz started talking in very plain English about the exact capabilities of law enforcement under a recently passed bill. The type of information that in the wake of the Snowden leaks had courts across the country agreeing that the average US Citizen should have been informed about. 

Senator Rubio broke in and said something about not discussing National Security in front of 15 million viewers... the exact same viewers that those National Security and Law Enforcement issues needed to be talked about to in plain English

That started the scales tipping. The scales took another tumble when the subject of Encryption came up in a debate. As best as I can determine Ted Cruz is at least aware of Kerckhoffs's Principle; or is knowledgeable enough of Open-Source development practices to realize that security professionals would treat any US Backdoor into any encryption as a front-door for every criminal on the planet; and simply write their own code; or leverage an audited Open-Source project with code not necessarily hosted within the confines of the US Borders. 

The event that wiped Senator Rubio from consideration; was the event that left Senator Ted Cruz as somebody I could support. That event was Senator Rubio up on a debate stage saying he would prosecute Snowden as a criminal while Senator Cruz would welcome Snowden home as a Patriot.

Snowden is a Patriot.

I've been over all of the evidence to date and I can find nothing that indicates that Snowden preformed his leaks with criminal intent. I genuinely believe he was somebody in a position who saw something atrocious going on... and could not let his country suffer under the Intelligence State that the Obama Administration had wrung into existence. 

Rubio's declaration on Snowden was not the clincher that made me state I Choose Cruz... but the impetus that drove me to look far more closely at Senator Cruz's policies, plans, and record. The same record, policies, and plans... that carried Senator Cruz into the top spot of the Iowa Caucus... are what makes me believe that Senator Cruz is the best candidate the GOP has to offer. 

Putting the cartoonish hyperbole, quote/unquote's, theatrics, metaphors, and snide snarky shots to one side; Senator Cruz has an uphill fight. His record is not one that resonates with much of the Senior Leadership of the Republican Party. It is my opinion that anything short of an overwhelming majority of US Voters all saying We Choose Cruz could result in a repeat of the 2015 political tragedy. The freshmen Congressional Representatives and Senators; the new blood swept into office to fulfill a mandate... could find themselves not fighting against the remnants of what was once called the Democratic National Committee. Rather they could find themselves fighting the Senior Members of the GOP... who are just as responsible for the mess the Obama Administration created.

So this is me. Je Saist. Je Zerias. The One Grumpy Bunny. The Eye of the Hurricane, Insanity Unchained and Chaos Purified. 

With one message. One simple message.

If you are an American Citizen over the age of 18: 

You need to get off your butt, get registered to vote; and go vote Ted Cruz into the US Presidential Office in an Avalanche that would make the Swiss Alps Jealous. 

Sunday, February 01, 2015

Repealing Obamacare: mind the cross-purposes talk

Pardon me while I brush away some dust. This is going to be better done here rather on than on G+ as I intend to toss a print-version at some of the politicians who can't be bothered to check their G+ notifications... or set up a G+ account. 

The short version of events is as follows: The Republican led congress has called for a vote to defund, dismantle, and generally repeal the quote/unquote Affordable Care Act.

Mr. Obama has in turn stated that he will veto any attempt to undo the ongoing disaster known as ObamaCare. Mr. Obama also has the support, or so he thinks, of his political constituents.

The Republican Party is confident that currently elected Democrats will have in mind the significant losses to seats in the House of Representatives, Senate, and Gubernatorial positions. Strategically there is no question that supporting the Affordable Care Act has permanently ended the political careers of many card-carrying Democrat National Party Members. There is a strong expectation that Democrats who have any expectation of ever holding any political power again will break ranks and vote to pass the legislation ending the Affordable Care Act. There is the stronger expectation that should Mr. Obama enact his threatened veto; those same Democrats will likely choose to make history and save their political futures by voting to over-ride Mr. Obama's Veto.

In attempting to stop what is perhaps now a reversal in progress on par with the Repeal of Prohibition, it is worth keeping in mind that Mr. Obama, his party constituents, and members of the paid broadcast and print media are engaged in deliberately talking at cross-purposes to the Republican Party and the United States of America as a whole. Those aligned with Mr. Obama accomplish this cross-purpose talk with a single question:

What do the (Republicans) intend to replace the Affordable Care Act with?

This is a Mugs Question that opens into a Mugs Game. Mr. Obama and those aligned with his political ideals will accept nothing outside of a "Nanny-State / Single-Payer" insurance system. As American's have learned from Mr. Gruber; Such a System Was Never Economically Viable To Begin With.

To be blunt the economic non-viability of the Affordable Care Act was fairly obvious even for those with zero experience in any college level; or for that matter grade-school level; economics course. What it comes down to is "How Does Insurance Work?"

Insurance companies such as StateFarm, Nationwide, Progressive, Allstate, and Geiko all have a fairly simply business model.  Those covered under an insurance policy deposit a comparatively small amount of their financial resources in a series of payments over time into the Insurance Company's Bank. The word "Bank" refers to the total collected amount of financial resources the Insurance Company has; not to a specific banking institution.

The Insurance Company adjusts the amount of financial resources expected to be deposited from any single covered entity against the Risk(s) that the covered entity will have to withdraw from the Insurance Company's Bank. The greater risks that any single entity represents requires a larger financial resource to be deposited. Case in point: an automobile driver with multiple legal violations will be considered a "High Risk" to the Insurance Company's "Bank." As such an automobile driver with multiple infractions on their license will be expected to deposit a significantly higher financial resource.

The Insurance Company Business Model relies on a greater number of covered entities contributing greater financial resources to the Bank than the number of covered entities withdrawing financial resources from the Bank. Which in-turn creates the infamous Insurance Adjuster archetype; an individual who is responsible for minimizing the amount of financial resources that have to be withdrawn from the Bank. Once again Auto-Insurance is a standout example where an insurance company might cover repairs at one auto-shop rather than another because the financial resource costs for labor and equipment costs are lower.

The Insurance Company Business Model ALSO relies on an almost entirely voluntary client base. Even the United State's mandatory Auto Insurance provisions require that a US Citizen actually own an automobile that is driven on an automotive infrastructure maintained using Taxpayer funds.  In other words: in the US a driver has to have automotive insurance if they take their vehicle on public roads. The need to rely on a voluntary client base directly leads to competition between insurance companies; which in turn helps lead to lowering the financial costs for any single covered entity who might get a better deal with a competitor.

Mr. Obama's Affordable Care Act outright ignored many of the fundamentals of the Insurance Company Business Model. At the very least the Affordable Care Act attempts to make coverage by an Insurance Company mandatory. Those who cannot afford a viable third party Insurance Company must be covered by a Taxpayer Sponsored Insurance Company; which automatically invalidates any up-ward spiral of expected behavior caused by competition. Rather than making health-insurance easier to access; this directly causes a drastic decrease in customer-service and let's third party entities attach booster rocket's to their financial resource premium. What's a potential client going to do? Pay-up for the increased costs on third party plan? Pay for their own coverage and the coverage for other s in taxes?  Not pay anything at all? Making insurance coverage mandatory was never a viable solution.

Mr. Obama's Affordable Care Act also places more power in the hands of the Insurance Adjuster Archetype. I myself have run into an issue with established entities like Blue Cross/Blue Shield in Georgia where a panel within the insurance company made a ruling on medical coverage, when no person on that panel was even remotely qualified to make any kind of ruling in regards to the medical issue at hand (neurosurgery). There is no getting around the fact that Medical Decisions absolutely have to be made by a Competent and Qualified Doctor; not by an insurance company employee using WebMD or Wikipedia. This is not a fact that is up for argument or debate.

Mr. Obama's Affordable Care Act further ignored the principles for an actual Insurance Company Business Model that a covered entity's financial deposits are adjusted not only against the risks that financial resources will have to be discharged for that covered entity; but also against the risks of how much any single discharge could cost. In the case of Health Insurance there is no question that financial resources will have to be discharged. As will shortly be addressed; the US health care system was already rife with doctors charging patients leveraging financial cash one amount; yet charging insurance companies significantly greater financial resource amounts with the expectation that the actual amount would be haggled down to somewhere above a financial cash transaction. Mr. Obama's Affordable Care Act did absolutely nothing to address the risks on either side of the Insurance Company Business Model. 

The point to be made then is this. The Republican Party does not have any legislation in mind to replace the Affordable Care Act. The Affordable Care Act was never affordable and never did anything to actually lower the costs of medicine in the United States. To quote some quick-shots from myself on G+ in October 2013: https://plus.google.com/u/0/117255203942825212306/posts/HVZo85um87R

The Affordable Care Act doesn't actually do anything to stop Doctor's Offices from charging insurance an inflated figure and then haggling down; while charging cash patients far less money.  
The Affordable Care Act doesn't actually do anything to lessen the amount of insurance paperwork any single Doctor's office has to deal with. Rather, according to the Doctor's I try and stay in contact with, their paperwork and filing needs will increase.
The Affordable Care Act doesn't actually do anything to lower or establish tax exemptions on medicines. 
The Affordable Care Act doesn't actually do anything to stop brand-name drug developers from overpricing their drugs; and then using the trade system as a battering ram to prevent generic drugs sold at affordable prices from making it hands into patients. As a personal example: I suffer from high blood pressure. The best drug combination, to date that works with my body chemistry is a Bystolic / Hyzaar combination. While Hyzaar has a generic available, as this posting Bystolic does not. The practical result for me is that I currently make do with an Atenolol / Lisinopril combination that is nowhere near as effective; but is affordable. The Affordable Care Act does nothing to address the market abuses of the pharmaceutical companies; and that in turn has a direct effect on the downstream costs of health care.  
The Affordable Care Act doesn't actually do anything to get more Doctors into Practice. There is a shortage of both Doctors and Nurses within the United States. The Affordable Care Act does nothing to reduce the amount of financial and legal risk that is associated with practicing medicine; nor does the legislation reduce or simplify the costs or processes in training to become a Doctor or a Nurse. The practical result is that the Affordable Care Act does absolutely nothing to address the practical shortage of people who are qualified and trained to serve in medical professions. As such Doctors, and by extension nurses, continue to be forced to turn the costs of their education back onto their clients, e.g. the patients, which continues to escalate health care costs.
Any New legislation from the Republican Party in regards to health-care will, in all likelihood, actually try to the address the actual cost issues at hand. Just passing a law stating that Doctors must charge cash-resource and insurance-covered patients the same exact financial resources would eliminate a staggering portion of the price-gouging that occurs and crater Health-Care costs almost overnight. That being said since Health-Insurance generally carries a labor overhead on the part of the Doctor a bill that allows Doctors to charge Insurance Companies a specified percentage over cash-resource would be more likely to pass with bipartisan support.

In the same way; legislation that targets the market abuses of pharmaceutical organizations would likewise have a direct effect on health-costs. A common argument here is that a prevalence of generic products would drive the billion-dollar pharmaceutical companies out of business. I'm not convinced. Speaking for myself I'd happily pay out for the brand name Bystolic / Hyzaar if the brand-name versions resource cost was within a percentage'd delta of a generic version rather than a logarithmic'd delta. Case in point: Each day millions of consumers around the world happily pay for brand name medicines like PeptoBismol, Advil, or Bayers Aspirin; despite vendors like Wal-Mart and CVS offering store-branded generic versions for less financial resources.

Understanding that the issues with Health Care in the United States are not, and cannot, be solved with legislation focused around quote/unquote Health Care Exchanges and Insurance Coverage is one of the first steps towards fixing Health Care not just in the US, but in other nations.

As an ending note an alert reader might have noticed that a specific form of addressing a specific person was avoided in the entirety of this posting. To be blunt: When a person in an politically elected office demonstrates complete and absolute utter incompetence in that office; that person forfeits any and all rights to the protections and benefits offered of that office; including but not limited to the expectation to be addressed by the title that office would normally grant.